Leafs-Bruins Round 1 Preview
I am so nervous it's not even funny.
If I had any life at all, I wouldn't be this antsy about a freakin' hockey playoff series. But I don't, and this isn't just a freakin' hockey playoff series to me, either.
We Leafs fans can be an irrational bunch. We take these playoff games way too seriously. I am told there are more important things in life than winning or losing in hockey, though I doubt it.
I've got to stop pretending. This upcoming playoff series between the Leafs and the Bruins matters to me a great deal, as I am sure they do to my fellow members of Leafs Nation, no matter where they live. Not going to apologize for this.
I think the last time I got this nervous about a Leafs' playoff series was maybe before the 2002 Eastern Conference Finals against the Hurricanes.
In recent years... Against the Capitals two seasons ago, we were just happy to be there. We really pushed them hard, played a bunch of OT games, but I don't think even the most optimistic of fans really expected us to win that series.
Last year, maybe expectations were a bit higher, but we didn't have the home ice against a Boston team that many felt were superior. Ended up blowing a 4-3 lead heading into the 3rd period in Game 7, but to be honest, I wasn't all that surprised that we failed to hold on to that slim lead.
We're going to be at it again vs. Boston. The Bruins have the home ice again. But will this series even go the distance?
Just a few thoughts on the eve of the series.
Revenge?
You'll find all the "skinny" stuff and stats, advanced or otherwise, elsewhere. So I am going to try to keep things simple here.
The key theme is obviously "revenge," as in... Can the Leafs get one back this time? It's not just last year. In 2013, we frittered away a three-goal lead in the third period of Game 7.
But I don't think our guys should get caught up in that past. We just have to focus on the present. What's happened is already in the past.
Kadri and Gardiner are the only two players remaining from the 2013 debacle, and they were prominent figures in last year's collapse as well. Kadri was suspended 3 games for a hit in the opening tilt. We'll never know how the series would have played out had he been available, but losing your No. 2 center in a playoff series is never a good thing.
Gardiner had a nightmarish night in Game 7 and was minus-5. But he shouldn't be out there trying to atone for that performance from a year ago. He should be out there just playing the game.
Babs loves him. Continues to call him a very good hockey player. I have my doubts, but Gardiner does offer some skills on the back end.
Gardiner's adventures conveniently masked the fact that Freddie Andersen didn't have himself a great series, either. I am concerned about the way he's been playing down the stretch in the regular season. Again, he can't be thinking about what happened a year ago, or even a week ago. He has to start with a fresh slate.
Depth
We no longer have Leo Komarov, which means Brad Marchand will have to pick a new opponent if he wants to lick a face.
Not having Komarov, if you ask me, isn't such a bad thing from a strategic point of view. A favorite of Babcock's, Leo was getting regular minutes in the bottom six in the regular season, while appearing in two games in the playoffs. Now we're giving those minutes to more skilled players like Johnsson, Kapanen, Ennis, etc.
Up the middle is where I think we should have an edge over the Bruins. Last year, our four centers were Matthews, Kadri (when not suspended), Plekanec and Tyler Bozak. We've basically replaced Plekanec with John Tavares and Bozak with Gauthier.
Boston has an awesome first line of Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak. But they won't play 60 minutes. They did get some decent secondary production from the likes of Krejci and DeBrusk, but we have far more depth on offense.
Let's say Hyman-Tavares-Marner line plays against their top line all the time. They cancel each other out. Matthews' line will be better, or will have to play better, than their second line. Kadri's line should be able to feast on Boston's third line. Whoever his wingers will be, most likely Marleau and Brown or Nylander, they gotta play the cycle game, run the other guys into the ground, and try to get ugly goals.
Boston had a stingy defense. We had a high-scoring offense with seven 20-goal scorers. Something's gotta give. The conventional wisdom has it that defense wins out every time, but I beg to differ. If we keep on knocking on the door hard enough, it will fall.
D-Fence
It's clearly an area of concern for us, even though Boston wasn't a great offensive team in the regular season.
They say the game changes in the playoffs, with a lot more hitting and stuff. I agree to a certain extent (and saw plenty of hitting in the opening games of other series today) but I think NHL in general has changed so much that physicality isn't as dominant a part of the game as it used to be, even in the playoffs.
For me, my keys on defense will be positioning and clearing. Don't try anything fancy. Just take your man and clear the puck out of harm's way. If it takes icing, so be it. You don't have to be hitting everything in sight to play good defense.
I've gone off on Nikita Zaitsev about his inability to clear the puck out of the zone. His partner in crime, Jake Muzzin, had some really bad games in March, too, while Gardiner was gone. Looks like Muzzin will be with Dermott and Gardiner will be back with Zaitsev, who knows.
Muzzin is probably the most physical of the bunch, and he and Hainsey are the only two players to have won the Stanley Cup on this team. Hopefully they'll be able to recover some of their magic (Muzzin had a great run with the Kings in 2014).
Now, Boston forwards are going to be throwing their bodies around for sure. We gotta be smart and not let those guys get under our skin. They can't be body-checking everyone for 60 minutes anyway. The home crowd will be fired up early on and they'll be cheering like crazy with every body check in the opening moments. An early goal to silence those people would be nice.
Young Leafs
Marner was the only forward of any use during last year's Round 1, with 9 points in 7 games. He was our most consistent playmaker in the regular season and I expect nothing less from him.
Yes, checking will be tighter. But he is smooth enough and smart enough to find his way around.
Tavares has had some great playoff moments with the Islanders. Just the type of stoic, businesslike veteran that this team needs in the playoffs.
Matthews was invisible last year. Had a feud with Babs, too, prompting the coach to fly to Auston's home in Arizona during the offseason to talk things over. Auston has also been a vocal critic of Babcock' Xs and Os at times this season. But I bet they realize this is no time to be getting into those things.
Nylander was a major disappointment after missing the early part of the season with a contract dispute. The one thing he has it going for him is at least he should have fresher legs than his teammates, having played far fewer games. At the top of his game, Nylander can be a smart playmaker and a dangerous attacker in the open ice. He only showed flashes of that in the regular season. He has at times shied away from the corners to battle for the puck. That's not going to fly in the playoffs. He has to get his nose dirty.
I am counting on Dermott to have a good series. He won't have high-leverage minutes against top dogs. He should have ample opportunities to showcase his puck-moving skills.
Coaching
Babs was badly outcoached by Cassidy last year. He's way too stubborn for my taste. His critics in the Toronto media love to point out the fact that Babcock hasn't won a playoff series since the lockout-shortened 2013, and not done so in a full year since 2011. Given that he's the highest-paid coach in the league, it's about time he started producing. A first-round exit for the third straight year won't look pretty on his resume.
Babcock got caught up in the matchup game and played into Cassidy's hands. He somehow forgot that our top line had to be out there trying to score, not just to guard the Bergeron line all the time. He seemed almost too passive, trying to play "playoff hockey" while not banking on the offensive skills that he had on the team.
This year, we're far more skilled, and perhaps not necessarily as tough without the likes of Komarov and Polak. But instead of whining about how he doesn't have enough tough guys in the lineup (and taking jabs at the front office), Babcock should try to make the most of the players that he has. That's what coaches are supposed to do, no? Bringing out the best in his players.
Even last year, you could make a compelling argument that the Leafs had a better team. But the Bruins won.
Prediction
I'm still having mixed thoughts about the series. One moment, I think the Bruins will take this series handily. The next, I think the Leafs will have a shot.
But since we Leafs fans are supposed to be pessimistic et al, I am taking the Bruins in 6.
For me, the biggest difference will be behind the bench. I just don't think Babcock will change overnight. He's going to dig himself into a hole and drag the rest of the team with him. And then he'll take more shots at the front office for not getting him players. And then he'll be fired.
But.. BUT... if the Leafs steal Game 1 on the road, I will be irrationally excited and predict a sweep.
Not sure I'll be able to sleep tonight, but I'll try.
If I had any life at all, I wouldn't be this antsy about a freakin' hockey playoff series. But I don't, and this isn't just a freakin' hockey playoff series to me, either.
We Leafs fans can be an irrational bunch. We take these playoff games way too seriously. I am told there are more important things in life than winning or losing in hockey, though I doubt it.
I've got to stop pretending. This upcoming playoff series between the Leafs and the Bruins matters to me a great deal, as I am sure they do to my fellow members of Leafs Nation, no matter where they live. Not going to apologize for this.
I think the last time I got this nervous about a Leafs' playoff series was maybe before the 2002 Eastern Conference Finals against the Hurricanes.
In recent years... Against the Capitals two seasons ago, we were just happy to be there. We really pushed them hard, played a bunch of OT games, but I don't think even the most optimistic of fans really expected us to win that series.
Last year, maybe expectations were a bit higher, but we didn't have the home ice against a Boston team that many felt were superior. Ended up blowing a 4-3 lead heading into the 3rd period in Game 7, but to be honest, I wasn't all that surprised that we failed to hold on to that slim lead.
We're going to be at it again vs. Boston. The Bruins have the home ice again. But will this series even go the distance?
Just a few thoughts on the eve of the series.
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Revenge?
You'll find all the "skinny" stuff and stats, advanced or otherwise, elsewhere. So I am going to try to keep things simple here.
The key theme is obviously "revenge," as in... Can the Leafs get one back this time? It's not just last year. In 2013, we frittered away a three-goal lead in the third period of Game 7.
But I don't think our guys should get caught up in that past. We just have to focus on the present. What's happened is already in the past.
Kadri and Gardiner are the only two players remaining from the 2013 debacle, and they were prominent figures in last year's collapse as well. Kadri was suspended 3 games for a hit in the opening tilt. We'll never know how the series would have played out had he been available, but losing your No. 2 center in a playoff series is never a good thing.
Gardiner had a nightmarish night in Game 7 and was minus-5. But he shouldn't be out there trying to atone for that performance from a year ago. He should be out there just playing the game.
Babs loves him. Continues to call him a very good hockey player. I have my doubts, but Gardiner does offer some skills on the back end.
Gardiner's adventures conveniently masked the fact that Freddie Andersen didn't have himself a great series, either. I am concerned about the way he's been playing down the stretch in the regular season. Again, he can't be thinking about what happened a year ago, or even a week ago. He has to start with a fresh slate.
Depth
We no longer have Leo Komarov, which means Brad Marchand will have to pick a new opponent if he wants to lick a face.
Not having Komarov, if you ask me, isn't such a bad thing from a strategic point of view. A favorite of Babcock's, Leo was getting regular minutes in the bottom six in the regular season, while appearing in two games in the playoffs. Now we're giving those minutes to more skilled players like Johnsson, Kapanen, Ennis, etc.
Up the middle is where I think we should have an edge over the Bruins. Last year, our four centers were Matthews, Kadri (when not suspended), Plekanec and Tyler Bozak. We've basically replaced Plekanec with John Tavares and Bozak with Gauthier.
Boston has an awesome first line of Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak. But they won't play 60 minutes. They did get some decent secondary production from the likes of Krejci and DeBrusk, but we have far more depth on offense.
Let's say Hyman-Tavares-Marner line plays against their top line all the time. They cancel each other out. Matthews' line will be better, or will have to play better, than their second line. Kadri's line should be able to feast on Boston's third line. Whoever his wingers will be, most likely Marleau and Brown or Nylander, they gotta play the cycle game, run the other guys into the ground, and try to get ugly goals.
Boston had a stingy defense. We had a high-scoring offense with seven 20-goal scorers. Something's gotta give. The conventional wisdom has it that defense wins out every time, but I beg to differ. If we keep on knocking on the door hard enough, it will fall.
D-Fence
It's clearly an area of concern for us, even though Boston wasn't a great offensive team in the regular season.
They say the game changes in the playoffs, with a lot more hitting and stuff. I agree to a certain extent (and saw plenty of hitting in the opening games of other series today) but I think NHL in general has changed so much that physicality isn't as dominant a part of the game as it used to be, even in the playoffs.
For me, my keys on defense will be positioning and clearing. Don't try anything fancy. Just take your man and clear the puck out of harm's way. If it takes icing, so be it. You don't have to be hitting everything in sight to play good defense.
I've gone off on Nikita Zaitsev about his inability to clear the puck out of the zone. His partner in crime, Jake Muzzin, had some really bad games in March, too, while Gardiner was gone. Looks like Muzzin will be with Dermott and Gardiner will be back with Zaitsev, who knows.
Muzzin is probably the most physical of the bunch, and he and Hainsey are the only two players to have won the Stanley Cup on this team. Hopefully they'll be able to recover some of their magic (Muzzin had a great run with the Kings in 2014).
Now, Boston forwards are going to be throwing their bodies around for sure. We gotta be smart and not let those guys get under our skin. They can't be body-checking everyone for 60 minutes anyway. The home crowd will be fired up early on and they'll be cheering like crazy with every body check in the opening moments. An early goal to silence those people would be nice.
Young Leafs
Marner was the only forward of any use during last year's Round 1, with 9 points in 7 games. He was our most consistent playmaker in the regular season and I expect nothing less from him.
Yes, checking will be tighter. But he is smooth enough and smart enough to find his way around.
Tavares has had some great playoff moments with the Islanders. Just the type of stoic, businesslike veteran that this team needs in the playoffs.
Matthews was invisible last year. Had a feud with Babs, too, prompting the coach to fly to Auston's home in Arizona during the offseason to talk things over. Auston has also been a vocal critic of Babcock' Xs and Os at times this season. But I bet they realize this is no time to be getting into those things.
Nylander was a major disappointment after missing the early part of the season with a contract dispute. The one thing he has it going for him is at least he should have fresher legs than his teammates, having played far fewer games. At the top of his game, Nylander can be a smart playmaker and a dangerous attacker in the open ice. He only showed flashes of that in the regular season. He has at times shied away from the corners to battle for the puck. That's not going to fly in the playoffs. He has to get his nose dirty.
I am counting on Dermott to have a good series. He won't have high-leverage minutes against top dogs. He should have ample opportunities to showcase his puck-moving skills.
Coaching
Babs was badly outcoached by Cassidy last year. He's way too stubborn for my taste. His critics in the Toronto media love to point out the fact that Babcock hasn't won a playoff series since the lockout-shortened 2013, and not done so in a full year since 2011. Given that he's the highest-paid coach in the league, it's about time he started producing. A first-round exit for the third straight year won't look pretty on his resume.
Babcock got caught up in the matchup game and played into Cassidy's hands. He somehow forgot that our top line had to be out there trying to score, not just to guard the Bergeron line all the time. He seemed almost too passive, trying to play "playoff hockey" while not banking on the offensive skills that he had on the team.
This year, we're far more skilled, and perhaps not necessarily as tough without the likes of Komarov and Polak. But instead of whining about how he doesn't have enough tough guys in the lineup (and taking jabs at the front office), Babcock should try to make the most of the players that he has. That's what coaches are supposed to do, no? Bringing out the best in his players.
Even last year, you could make a compelling argument that the Leafs had a better team. But the Bruins won.
Prediction
I'm still having mixed thoughts about the series. One moment, I think the Bruins will take this series handily. The next, I think the Leafs will have a shot.
But since we Leafs fans are supposed to be pessimistic et al, I am taking the Bruins in 6.
For me, the biggest difference will be behind the bench. I just don't think Babcock will change overnight. He's going to dig himself into a hole and drag the rest of the team with him. And then he'll take more shots at the front office for not getting him players. And then he'll be fired.
But.. BUT... if the Leafs steal Game 1 on the road, I will be irrationally excited and predict a sweep.
Not sure I'll be able to sleep tonight, but I'll try.
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