Auston for 5 More Seasons
This was the last day of our Lunar New Year weekend, and my family stayed home all day. Literally. We didn't even bother going outside. The phrase "getting some fresh air" should be used with caution around these parts, because of such terrible air quality.
Spent my morning reading up on Auston Matthews' signing a five-year extension with the Leafs, and then watching the Raptors beat the Sixers 119-107 after weathering some late storm.
It's getting late at night,but I am going to cover these issues in a single post and it's impossible to cover these issues in a single post. (I came back to this sentence after ranting about the Matthews' deal for like 20 minutes.)
So I'll write about the contract here. The Raptors' win was nice, coming as it did on the road to kick off a three-game trip, and I liked our defensive effort in the end when the other guys made it interesting. It was a stressful finish (it got me thinking, if a regular season game in February is that stressful, how am I going to survive the playoffs?) and officiating was terrible for both ends. I know players whine about calls/non-calls all the time, but it got out of control at times.
Anyway, my thoughts on Matthews' extension.
Matthews for 5 More Years
Gonna save you minute details of the deal since you can find them in the link above or other places.
I've had the whole day to read a few articles and fans' comments, and listened to some analysis and Auston's interview, etc. Basically, this deal has been on my mind the past 15 or so hours.
First off, I think it's great we got this extension done before the summer, when Matthews would have become a restricted free agent. GM Dubas had said he wanted to get this over with before the Feb. 25 trade deadline, so as to give himself more certainty/flexibility to make moves right around that day as he sees fit.
Hindsight being 20/20, after the Willie Nylander circus, I know some people said we should've locked down both Matthews and Mitch in the summer when they still could've been had relatively cheap. Both guys got off to scorching starts to the new season, and it just became impossible to keep them below $10 million AAV, regardless of the length of the contract. Maybe we could have signed both around $9 million last summer, who knows?
Though Leafs fans are, by right, supposed to be pessimistic and negative about everything, I'll choose to stay positive on this particular case. I don't mind the cap hit of $11.634 million (okay, that doesn't exactly sound optimistic, but I tried). When you have a high-end talent like Matthews, you pay the man high-end dollars. Simple as that.
He's an elite scorer who will only get better. A point-a-game producer with a vastly underrated defensive game. He's not in Connor McDavid's class but he's right below. In this day and age of wide open hockey, I see 50-goal, 100-point seasons in Matthews. And if fans are getting all worked up about whether Matthews is worth the money or not, they're missing the whole point. Of course, he's worth that money. He's our franchise cornerstone, and you gotta do what you gotta do to keep him in town.
Now, the length of the deal is kind of curious. The max he was eligible to sign is eight years. Matthews' camp apparently wanted to do that last summer but the team didn't budge. But in days leading up to his signing, Matthews said/hinted he was willing to be flexible, knowing the team would face a cap crunch and all and he wanted to allow the team to build a winner around him.
There's nothing to lose on Auston's part to sign for five years. He can hit the open market at 26, still right in his prime or maybe even before that.
As for the Leafs, there are half-full and half-empty ways to look at it: Wow, we're going to have him for five more seasons! Or... Dang, we'll only have him for five more years and he could be gone!
Again, I am trying to remain positive here. Assuming all the right pieces are there (Mitch signed to an extension, Tavares staying productive into his early 30s, Naz evolving into a Selke-type center, Johnsson and Kapanen re-signed, Mo and Muzzin manning the blue line, etc), I think five years will be plenty of time for us to keep knocking on that door and trying to win the Cup. Six years would have been nice, but I can live with the five.
As for the more pessimistic view, I think it will come down to the "Kids these days..." argument. Some old school analysts have said things like, "Young players today just want to get paid big dough. There's no loyalty. They don't care about winning. When their contract is up, they'll just sign with whoever will pay them the most money." Even our prez Brendan Shanahan once said, during the Nylander stalemate, that back in his Red Wings playing days, key players left money on the table to stay with Detroit and to try to win the big prize. (Of course, they didn't have the salary cap back then, and even when those guys took less money to stay with the Wings, they still got paid a ton! But you get the point.)
Matthews is American, playing in the most unforgiving hockey market in the league. I follow Toronto media closely, and the scope of their Leafs coverage is deep and wide. These people will produce a 500-word article, complete with quotes, about line combinations at practices. Practice? We're talking about practice?
The scrutiny is intense, especially on big-time players like Matthews. I don't follow New York or Boston teams that closely, and I only know of their reputation as tough media markets, especially for teams like the Yankees and the Sox and the Knicks, etc. But I would say Toronto is just as brutal for the Leafs.
And the pressure will only grow after this contract. Can Matthews handle it? Professional athletes are human, too. Not everyone is capable of just letting things slide off. Some athletes will brood and let stuff like this get to them. Maybe Matthews will go "home" and play for the Arizona Coyotes when this contract expires. And who knows, by that time, the 'Yotes may have a decent young core, too.
I can understand fans' concerns, but why fret about that now? Me, I'll start thinking about Auston's future when we get there. And that's the 2023-2024 season. If we win a Cup or two before that, then I'll be like, "This guy got us these titles. He can go wherever he wants to go now!"
Now What?
Now that we have Willie and Matthews lock down, Mitch is the next one up. He's also eligible for restricted free agency after the season. And his agent has already said the two sides won't talk contract during the season, and he's accused the Leafs of trying to lowball him.
An agent talking to the media about contract talks? Why am I not surprised?
He later clarified that he was referring to the early stages of the negotiations, when teams typically lowball players anyway, and that things have been positive of late and he felt Mitch would be a Leafs for a long time.
Mitch is so fun to watch. He is a dynamic playmaker. Whenever he has the puck on his stick, I always get the feeling something good will happen. He may lead the team in scoring for the second straight season. People may worry about his size (6 foot, 175 pounds, compared to Auston and his 6-3, 223-pound frame) but Mitch has not missed a game the last two seasons. It's Matthews who's been more injury prone. With Mitch, I see 30-goal, 70-assist seasons in the future.
Some seem to value Matthews more because he is a center and Mitch is a winger. I get that. But Mitch is just as valuable as an offensive asset as anyone on the team because he can really drive a line. He's that proverbial star who can make his teammates better.
In a cap-free world, we fans wouldn't be crunching numbers and trying to figure out how the hell we're going to pay everyone, now that we have two players making more than $11 million per season (JT and AM34).
Does Mitch deserve $11 million a year, on par with Tavares and just below Matthews? I'd say yes. But we can't afford that now. He deserves at least $10 mil, and if the two sides can come to an agreement on that round figure for 5-6 years, I'd be estactic.
It's not just Marner. I'd like for us to keep both Kapanen and Johnsson on board, too. Are they going to "leave money on the table" and stay with the Leafs, so that they can take a crack at winning the Cup in Toronto? Or are they just going to leave the city for more money and better weather?
Offensive depth matters more in hockey than in basketball because no matter how good you are as a forward, the most you can play is about one-third of a game. You'll still need role players and those rugged fourth-liners to log some minute, fill in the gaps and produce whatever they can. Skilled wingers like Kapanen and Johnsson can come in handy come playoff time.
But if we don't grab them, well, just gotta rely on our top dogs and keep our fingers crossed for some Marlies kids to keep growing.
By the way, Jake Gardiner is an unrestricted free agent but the Muzzin trade provides us with some buffer in case he walks. As much as he's done for this franchise, I don't think too many tears will be shed if he does decide to leave.
Spent my morning reading up on Auston Matthews' signing a five-year extension with the Leafs, and then watching the Raptors beat the Sixers 119-107 after weathering some late storm.
It's getting late at night,
So I'll write about the contract here. The Raptors' win was nice, coming as it did on the road to kick off a three-game trip, and I liked our defensive effort in the end when the other guys made it interesting. It was a stressful finish (it got me thinking, if a regular season game in February is that stressful, how am I going to survive the playoffs?) and officiating was terrible for both ends. I know players whine about calls/non-calls all the time, but it got out of control at times.
Anyway, my thoughts on Matthews' extension.
Matthews for 5 More Years
Gonna save you minute details of the deal since you can find them in the link above or other places.
I've had the whole day to read a few articles and fans' comments, and listened to some analysis and Auston's interview, etc. Basically, this deal has been on my mind the past 15 or so hours.
First off, I think it's great we got this extension done before the summer, when Matthews would have become a restricted free agent. GM Dubas had said he wanted to get this over with before the Feb. 25 trade deadline, so as to give himself more certainty/flexibility to make moves right around that day as he sees fit.
Hindsight being 20/20, after the Willie Nylander circus, I know some people said we should've locked down both Matthews and Mitch in the summer when they still could've been had relatively cheap. Both guys got off to scorching starts to the new season, and it just became impossible to keep them below $10 million AAV, regardless of the length of the contract. Maybe we could have signed both around $9 million last summer, who knows?
Though Leafs fans are, by right, supposed to be pessimistic and negative about everything, I'll choose to stay positive on this particular case. I don't mind the cap hit of $11.634 million (okay, that doesn't exactly sound optimistic, but I tried). When you have a high-end talent like Matthews, you pay the man high-end dollars. Simple as that.
He's an elite scorer who will only get better. A point-a-game producer with a vastly underrated defensive game. He's not in Connor McDavid's class but he's right below. In this day and age of wide open hockey, I see 50-goal, 100-point seasons in Matthews. And if fans are getting all worked up about whether Matthews is worth the money or not, they're missing the whole point. Of course, he's worth that money. He's our franchise cornerstone, and you gotta do what you gotta do to keep him in town.
Now, the length of the deal is kind of curious. The max he was eligible to sign is eight years. Matthews' camp apparently wanted to do that last summer but the team didn't budge. But in days leading up to his signing, Matthews said/hinted he was willing to be flexible, knowing the team would face a cap crunch and all and he wanted to allow the team to build a winner around him.
There's nothing to lose on Auston's part to sign for five years. He can hit the open market at 26, still right in his prime or maybe even before that.
As for the Leafs, there are half-full and half-empty ways to look at it: Wow, we're going to have him for five more seasons! Or... Dang, we'll only have him for five more years and he could be gone!
Again, I am trying to remain positive here. Assuming all the right pieces are there (Mitch signed to an extension, Tavares staying productive into his early 30s, Naz evolving into a Selke-type center, Johnsson and Kapanen re-signed, Mo and Muzzin manning the blue line, etc), I think five years will be plenty of time for us to keep knocking on that door and trying to win the Cup. Six years would have been nice, but I can live with the five.
As for the more pessimistic view, I think it will come down to the "Kids these days..." argument. Some old school analysts have said things like, "Young players today just want to get paid big dough. There's no loyalty. They don't care about winning. When their contract is up, they'll just sign with whoever will pay them the most money." Even our prez Brendan Shanahan once said, during the Nylander stalemate, that back in his Red Wings playing days, key players left money on the table to stay with Detroit and to try to win the big prize. (Of course, they didn't have the salary cap back then, and even when those guys took less money to stay with the Wings, they still got paid a ton! But you get the point.)
Matthews is American, playing in the most unforgiving hockey market in the league. I follow Toronto media closely, and the scope of their Leafs coverage is deep and wide. These people will produce a 500-word article, complete with quotes, about line combinations at practices. Practice? We're talking about practice?
The scrutiny is intense, especially on big-time players like Matthews. I don't follow New York or Boston teams that closely, and I only know of their reputation as tough media markets, especially for teams like the Yankees and the Sox and the Knicks, etc. But I would say Toronto is just as brutal for the Leafs.
And the pressure will only grow after this contract. Can Matthews handle it? Professional athletes are human, too. Not everyone is capable of just letting things slide off. Some athletes will brood and let stuff like this get to them. Maybe Matthews will go "home" and play for the Arizona Coyotes when this contract expires. And who knows, by that time, the 'Yotes may have a decent young core, too.
I can understand fans' concerns, but why fret about that now? Me, I'll start thinking about Auston's future when we get there. And that's the 2023-2024 season. If we win a Cup or two before that, then I'll be like, "This guy got us these titles. He can go wherever he wants to go now!"
Now What?
Now that we have Willie and Matthews lock down, Mitch is the next one up. He's also eligible for restricted free agency after the season. And his agent has already said the two sides won't talk contract during the season, and he's accused the Leafs of trying to lowball him.
An agent talking to the media about contract talks? Why am I not surprised?
He later clarified that he was referring to the early stages of the negotiations, when teams typically lowball players anyway, and that things have been positive of late and he felt Mitch would be a Leafs for a long time.
Mitch is so fun to watch. He is a dynamic playmaker. Whenever he has the puck on his stick, I always get the feeling something good will happen. He may lead the team in scoring for the second straight season. People may worry about his size (6 foot, 175 pounds, compared to Auston and his 6-3, 223-pound frame) but Mitch has not missed a game the last two seasons. It's Matthews who's been more injury prone. With Mitch, I see 30-goal, 70-assist seasons in the future.
Some seem to value Matthews more because he is a center and Mitch is a winger. I get that. But Mitch is just as valuable as an offensive asset as anyone on the team because he can really drive a line. He's that proverbial star who can make his teammates better.
In a cap-free world, we fans wouldn't be crunching numbers and trying to figure out how the hell we're going to pay everyone, now that we have two players making more than $11 million per season (JT and AM34).
Does Mitch deserve $11 million a year, on par with Tavares and just below Matthews? I'd say yes. But we can't afford that now. He deserves at least $10 mil, and if the two sides can come to an agreement on that round figure for 5-6 years, I'd be estactic.
It's not just Marner. I'd like for us to keep both Kapanen and Johnsson on board, too. Are they going to "leave money on the table" and stay with the Leafs, so that they can take a crack at winning the Cup in Toronto? Or are they just going to leave the city for more money and better weather?
Offensive depth matters more in hockey than in basketball because no matter how good you are as a forward, the most you can play is about one-third of a game. You'll still need role players and those rugged fourth-liners to log some minute, fill in the gaps and produce whatever they can. Skilled wingers like Kapanen and Johnsson can come in handy come playoff time.
But if we don't grab them, well, just gotta rely on our top dogs and keep our fingers crossed for some Marlies kids to keep growing.
By the way, Jake Gardiner is an unrestricted free agent but the Muzzin trade provides us with some buffer in case he walks. As much as he's done for this franchise, I don't think too many tears will be shed if he does decide to leave.
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